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China is rapidly approaching a point where it will have “nothing to lose” in an ever-intensifying trade war with the US, economists said after US President Donald Trump threatened to slap a further 50 per cent in levies on Chinese imports.
经济学家表示，中国正迅速接近一个“无所畏惧”的时刻，在与美国日益加剧的贸易战中，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁对中国进口商品加征 50%的关税。
And despite Trump’s hard line, some economists said that China is sure to retaliate, as the marginal economic impact of his fresh threats on China is declining as the effective tariff level quickly builds up.
尽管特朗普采取强硬立场，一些经济学家表示，中国肯定会进行报复，因为他对中国的新威胁的边际经济影响正在下降，而有效关税水平迅速上升。
“Currently, the profit margin for China’s export sector is around 30 to 40 per cent,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. “If the US imposes tariffs exceeding 35 per cent, it would wipe out most of their profits – whether the tariff is 70 per cent or even 1,000 per cent makes little difference, as it essentially blocks China from trading directly with the US.
“目前，中国出口行业的利润率大约在 30%到 40%之间，”欧亚集团中国区主任丹·王说。“如果美国征收超过 35%的关税，几乎会抹去他们的大部分利润——无论关税是 70%还是甚至 1000%都没有太大区别，因为这基本上阻止了中国与美国直接贸易。
“China will certainly retaliate; it won’t back down.”
“中国肯定会报复；它不会退缩。”
Trump’s warning on Monday threatened to push combined duties on Chinese imports beyond 100 per cent on Wednesday, after Beijing imposed a 34 per cent tariff to match the “reciprocal tariff” that Trump slapped on Chinese imports during his “Liberation Day”.
特朗普周一的警告威胁将在周三将对中国进口的综合关税推高至超过 100%，此时北京已对特朗普在其“解放日”期间对中国进口征收的“对等关税”实施了 34%的关税。
“Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated,” Trump threatened on social media.
特朗普在社交媒体上威胁称：“此外，所有与中国有关的会议请求将被终止。”
Wang explained that, despite Chinese exporters now facing the new reality of a permanent rise in export costs, it does not mean exports will stop. Instead, she said, it forces exporters to find new markets while cutting back on goods shipped directly to the US.
王女士解释说，尽管中国出口商现在面临出口成本永久上升的新现实，但这并不意味着出口会停止。相反，她表示，这迫使出口商寻找新市场，同时减少直接运往美国的货物。
“As long as the yuan remains steady, which currently means upward pressure against the US dollar, US consumers will bear higher costs than Chinese exporters in the end,” Wang said.
王女士表示：“只要人民币保持稳定，这目前意味着对美元的上行压力，美国消费者最终将承担比中国出口商更高的成本。”
Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at French investment bank Natixis, also downplayed Trump’s latest threat.
法国投资银行 Natixis 亚太地区首席经济学家阿莉西亚·加西亚-埃雷罗也淡化了特朗普最新的威胁。
“The US market is already closed for Chinese products – at least directly from China to the US,” she explained, “so [an additional 50 per cent tariff hike] is not an [effective] threat.
“美国市场已经对中国商品关闭了——至少是从中国直接到美国的商品，”她解释道，“所以[额外的 50%的关税上调]并不是一个[有效的]威胁。”
Instead, she said, it reflects how much more the US is trying to contain China than anyone else, which “was already the case before China retaliated”.
相反，她说，这反映出美国试图遏制中国的程度远超过其他国家，而“在中国进行报复之前，这种情况就已经存在了。”
“I think China retaliated for two reasons,” Garcia-Herrero said. “Firstly, it was that China was singled out. Secondly, China has the leverage to retaliate.
“我认为中国出手报复有两个原因，”加西亚-埃雷罗说。“首先，是因为中国被单独挑出来。其次，中国有能力进行报复。”
“Therefore, the US … to make sure that nobody else would retaliate – it did two things: first, call for negotiations to extend the deadline to impose tariffs, and second, punish China further.”
“因此，美国……为了确保没有其他国家会报复——它做了两件事：首先，呼吁谈判以延长征收关税的最后期限，其次，进一步惩罚中国。”
China vows to take ‘countermeasures’ after Trump’s new 50% tariff threat
中国誓言在特朗普新 50%关税威胁后采取“反制措施”
If Trump’s latest tariff-hike threat materialises, it would effectively raise the total US duty level on China to around 115 per cent, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
如果特朗普最新的加税威胁实现，这将有效地将美国对中国的总关税水平提高到约 115%，经济学人智库中国首席经济学家苏悦表示。
The 50 per cent threat comes on top of the 34 per cent tariff announced last week and two 10 per cent tariff hikes levied on Chinese imports in February and March, and all are expected to stack with the Section 301 tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term in office. Researchers have calculated that the effective US tariff rate on China could add up to around 65-70 per cent under this rubric, not including the new 50 per cent threat.
50%的威胁是在上周宣布的 34%关税基础上提出的，并且在 2 月和 3 月对中国进口征收的两次 10%关税的基础上，所有这些预计将与特朗普第一任期内实施的 301 条款关税叠加。研究人员计算出，在这种情况下，美国对中国的有效关税率可能会达到约 65-70%，不包括新的 50%威胁。
Su said the new 50 per cent tariff would essentially create a clear cost gap between China and countries such as Vietnam, which had been a major re-routing channel for Chinese suppliers looking to bypass US tariffs until Trump announced 46 per cent tariff hikes on the Southeast Asian country last week.
苏表示，新征收的 50%关税将实质上在中国与越南等国之间创造出明显的成本差距，而越南一直是中国供应商寻找绕过美国关税的主要转运渠道，直到特朗普上周宣布对这个东南亚国家提高 46%的关税。
“Adding 50 per cent to China, while leaving room for negotiation with other countries – this essentially keeps the door open for the ‘China plus one’ strategy,” Su said. “So there are still ways [for Chinese exporters] to mitigate the impacts.”
“对中国增加 50%的关税，同时为与其他国家的谈判留出空间——这实质上为‘中国加一个’战略保持了开放的可能性，”苏说。“所以仍然有办法[让中国出口商]减轻影响。”
Facing tariffs sooner than expected, the Chinese government will double down on its much-needed domestic consumption policies, Su anticipated.
面对比预期更早的关税，中国政府将加倍推进其急需的国内消费政策，苏预计。
“I get the sense China is approaching a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality,” Su said. “So, if Beijing can really commit to restructuring its economy, this might not actually be a bad thing.”
“我感觉中国正接近一种‘无所畏惧’的心态，”苏说。“所以，如果北京真的能够致力于重组其经济，这实际上可能不是一件坏事。”
To sustain growth at around 4.5 per cent – while accounting for the risk of a US recession and its global ripple effects – an additional fiscal stimulus of up to 2 trillion yuan (US$273 billion) may be required, Su added.
苏补充道，为了维持约 4.5%的增长，同时考虑到美国经济衰退及其全球连锁反应的风险，可能需要额外的财政刺激措施，金额可达 2 万亿人民币（2730 亿美元）。
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